My Proposed Electoral Boundaries

So to summarize my previous 5 posts, these are my Proposed Electoral Boundaries for the upcoming election. 

We would have:

12x Single Member Constituencies (SMC) 

5x 3-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

4x 4-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

9x 5-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

1x 6-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

For a grand total of 94 seats, up from 87 seats available at the 2011 election. 

Single Member Constituencies (SMC) 

The proposed number of SMCs would increase by 1, from 2011. We would see the retention of 3 SMCs (Mountbatten, Joo Chiat and Potong Pasir), the rearranging and renaming of 2 SMCs (Radin Mas to Telok Blangah, and Whampoa to Balestier) and the formation of 7 new SMCs. 

3-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

This proposed electoral boundaries will see the re-introduction of the 3-Membered GRCs, which is the minimum size of a Group Representation Constituency, according to the constitution and the Parliamentary Elections Act, but not seen in Singapore since the 1988 General Election where Pasir Panjang and Tiong Bahru were the only two 3-membered GRCs. This move is also in line with PM Lee's directive for smaller GRCs, bringing the average size of the GRCs to 4.3 members in a GRC.

4-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

There is a increase in the number of 4 membered GRCs, from 2 in 2011, to the proposed 4.

5-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

There is a small proposed decrease, from eleven 5-member GRCs to nine.

6-Membered Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) 

There is a 50% reduction of 6 membered GRCs from the current 2 (Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and Ang Mo Kio GRC) to the proposed single GRC.

Constituencies in North-Eastern Singapore

IF I were the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee

Other than Pasir Ris - Punggol GRC, the North East is full of opposition strongholds. Hence any changes here has to be handled carefully, lest complaints of Gerrymandering or even worse, more constituencies falling to the control of the Opposition parties. 

I decided to group these GRCs and the Potong Pasir SMC together here as the Northeast Region as all these constituencies are built around the MRT Northeast Line

Punggol GRC

3 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

As mentioned in my complaints of the Pasir Ris - Punggol GRC, I believe Punggol should be detached from Seng Kang and Pasir Ris, and made into its own GRC. Currently, it would only contain 2 constituencies; Punggol West and Punggol North. However, I expect this to be the be the fastest growing area as a very large portion of new HDB flats are planned to be built in Punggol. The constituencies can be re-arranged to; Punggol West, Punggol Central and Punggol East (not to be confused with the SMC Punggol East, which actually covers Sengkang and not Punggol)

The boundaries for this GRC are nice and clear, with Sungei Punggol and Sungei Serangoon on the east and west respectively, and the TPE to the south.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Unlikely. As mentioned previously, there is possible reluctance to break-up the strong 6-membered Pasir Ris Punggol GRC. But if this GRC surfaces, the PAP would be expected to do well here. 

This Punggol GRC was part of the GRC previously contested by SDA, and has never performed well in this area. I would believe they would have interest to run here. 

However, the Workers party is also active in this Area, and might be interested to contest here. Because of its small size for a GRC, we might possibly see the only 3 cornered fight for a GRC. 

Seng Kang GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Sengkang is actually very nicely divided and labelled, so it actually seemed such a big waste not to used the various labelled areas for the various individual constituencies; Rivervale to the east, followed by Compassvale, Anchorvale, and Fernvale to the west, across Sungei Punggol. To the south there is Bangkok and to the west there is Seletar

Seletar has 2 parts; the private houses east of the CTE, and the Seletar Airbase/ Airport area. 

Because Buangkok and Seletar is smaller than the other 4 constituency, I considered making them into a single Seletar-Buangkok Constituency. An alternative is to make Seletar a constituency by itself and either park it with Seng Kang or Ang Mo Kio, making either a 6 membered GRC.

A third option was for Buangkok to be an a standalone SMC, but I decided to just park it under Sengkang for now because of the lack of amenities like a major Shopping centre. A small factor in favour of this is how Buangkok is serviced by buses from Sengkang Bus Interchange. 

So I eventually decided to make Buangkok a constituency under Sengkang, and park Seletar under the Fernvale Constituency as the part of Seletar along Jalan Kayu would be the best connected to Singapores MRT network via the LRT at Fernvale and Thanggam. 

Hence, unlike all the GRCs and SMCs where I heavily relied on the current existing constituencies, I created the constituencies based on the names of the current areas, and built the GRC around them. 

The boundaries for this GRC is Lower Seletar Reservoir and the SLE/CTE to the East, Ang Mo Kio Ave 5/Buangkok Green/ Buangkok Dr to the south, Sungei Serangoon/ TPE and Sungei Punggol to the east.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

There is a good possibility. Besides the same reluctance to break-up the strong 6-membered Pasir Ris Punggol GRC mentioned above, this GRC takes portions of Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, Ang Mo Kio's Jalan Kayu, both of which are GRC that vote overwhelmingly for PAP, and combines it with the Punggol East and Sengkang West SMCS, giving the PAP a very good chance to win back Punggol East, which was won by the Workers' party in the 2013 by-election. Teo Ser Luck would most likely lead the PAP team here. 

Hougang GRC3 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Similar to the situation around Sembawang, I found the area around Houngang MRT to be weirdly butchered, with part of it forming Hougang SMC, part forming half of Bedok Reservoir-Punggol constituency in Aljunied GRC, and also from Ang Mo Kio GRC's Ang Mo Kio-Hougang constituency and half of the Sengkang South- Hougang constituency. When we rearrange all these, we can easily form a 3 membered GRC, centered aroung Hougang.

Although this would cause the boundaries to look irregular, i think it is better to include the HDB flats north of the Hougang stadium, and the Serangoon North Ave 1 residences together with Houngang.

The boundaries for this GRC is the CTE to the west, Ang Mo Kio Ave 5/Buangkok Green/Buangkok Dr to the north, Sungei Serangoon, the perimeter of Paya Lebar Airbase, Tampines Road, Upper Serangoon Road, Lim Ah Pin Rd, Florence Rd, Hougang Ave 2, Serangoon North Ave 1 and Ang Mo Kio Ave 3. 

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Highly unlikely. Hougang is currentý Worker's Party's stronghold, which they have held for 20 years. 1.5 constituencies is also from Aljunied, which is also currently held by WP. Hence such a GRC would give the Opposition a good opportunity to pick up another GRC. Hence it would be a very unlikely GRC.

Serangoon GRC

4 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

One thing that really annoyed me about the current Electoral Boundaries is that Aljunied is not part of Aljunied GRC. As with all the GRCs in the east, Aljunied is one big sprawling mess, from which we had taken out the Hougang part of the Bedok Reservoir - Punggol constituency to give to the Hougang GRC, combined the remaining Bedok Reservoir part with the Eunos constituency and given that and the Kaki Bukit Constituency to the Bedok GRC. This leaves us with only the Paya Lebar and the Serangoon Constituencies. However, to this we also add Braddell  Heights, which we have removed from Marine Parade GRC

With a bit of rearrangement, we get 4 constituencies; Braddell Heights (to be renamed Serangoon), Paya Lebar (to be renamed Lorong Ah Soo - Which now also includes Defu and excludes the northern parts given to Hougang), Kovan (which is bounded by Yio Chu Kang Road, Boundary Road, Upper Serangoon Road and Hougang Ave 2), and Serangoon Gardens. As a whole, this GRC would be known as Serangoon GRC.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Highly unlikely. This takes part of Aljunied, which is currently under the control of Workers Party, and makes very drastic changes to its composition, which usually do not sit well with voters, even if the new configuration is actually in the favour of the opposition. But if this GRC does indeed appear, it should comfortably remain with the opposition.

Potong Pasir SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Potong Pasir is an SMC that was the Opposition's stronghold for many years, but was recently won last Election by PAP, by 0.8% only. While not changing the boundaries might result in PAP losing this constituency again, changing it might have terrible effects perception-wise, nationwide.

The boundaries should be unchanged from its present boundaries, with a slight reduction of parts of Toa Payoh, to give Potong Pasirs a clearer boundary lines. To the west, we have the CTE and the PIE to the south. To the east was Aljunied Road/ Upper Paya Lebar Road, and Bartley Road/Braddell Road to the north,

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

Very good chance. I think this would be one of the few SMCs that will be untouched. However, it would be difficult to say if Chiam See Tong would return to re-contest this SMC that he won and held for 22 years, before being lost by his wife. Sitoh Yin Pin would naturally return to defend his seat. 

Constituencies in Eastern Singapore

IF I were the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee

Honestly, other than Tampines GRC, the GRCs in the east are sprawling messes. East Coast GRC stretches from Changi Village to Siglap, Pasir Ris - Punggol GRC stretches from Loyang to Sengkang, Aljunied from Bedok Reservoir to the CTE, and Marine Parade from East Coast to Lorong Chuan. Some serious rearrangement is needed here.

Pasir Ris GRC

3 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Pasir Ris is a self contained new town, with a hub for transportation, commercial and recreational spaces. There is no reason why it should not be a GRC by itself. It currently contains 2 constituencies; Pasir Ris East and Pasir Ris West. 

To the east of Pasir Ris, lies the lonely small estate of Changi Village, which is currently a constituency together with Siglap. However, i think it is more logical for residents of Changi to connect to Singapore's MRT network via Pasir Ris instead. And like Ayer Rajah Constituency, let's just make Changi (including Loyang Industrial area Changi Airport, Pulau Ubin and Pulau Tekong) a micro constituency like Ayer Rajah, which balances out the larger Pasir Ris East and Pasir Ris West constituencies.

The boundaries for this GRC would be Serangoon river to the west, the stretch of TPE-PIE to the south, the ECP and a tiny portion of Bedok Canal to the south

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very unlikely. Like Ang Mo Kio, the large 6 membered Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC protects DPM Teo Chee Hean. The SDA has contested here for the past 2 election, with their best showing at 35.21% of the votes. However, should this GRC surface, DPM Teo should handily win here again

Tampines GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Tampines is a rare GRC that actually exists while its existence makes complete sense. Other than the addition of the Temesek Polytechnic area, the small plot of land north of the PIE, and the addition of Paya Lebar Air Base to this GRC, i don't see any need to make any changes to this GRC at all.

The boundaries for this GRC would be the TPE to the north, PIE and Sungei Bedok to the south, and the perimeter of Paya Lebar Air Base to the west

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very likely. This GRC already exists, so there should not be any reason why this would change. However, the NSP had an unusually strong showing here in 2011, which might prompt the EBRC to slightly amend its boundaries to possibly include parts of Pasir Ris, which is strongly Pro-PAP

Simei SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

 

Just looking at the map, Simei is an obvious choice for an SMC with plenty of facilities and amenities, a transportation Hub in the form of Simei MRT (though no bus interchage), and very easy and clear boundaries.

The boundaries for this SMC would be the PIE to the north, ECP to the southeast, and Sungei Bedok to the southwest.

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

Unlikely. On one hand, this is an ideal candidate for an SMC, on the other hand, it is part of a GRC that did poorly in 2011, with WP wining 45.2%, and is the worst performing GRC for the PAP. Furthermore, the MP for Changi-Simei is Ms Jessica Tan, a backbencher with very little presence on the national level and low name recognition to the average Singaporean. If paired up against someone young and popular from WP, like Gerald Giam, a current NCMP, this might potentially become an opposition seat if converted to an SMC.

Bedok GRC
6 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

The Kaki Bukit and the Eunos Constituencies historically was part of the Eunos GRC, of which significant parts are now in the East Coast GRC, but is now part of Aljunied GRC.

In doing this exercise, Eunos was my problem child; it didn't really seem to fit in anywhere. This is also evident in its history of being in 3 different GRCs in 3 consecutive elections; part of East Coast in 2001 (and 1997), part of Marine Parade in 2011, and now currently part of Aljunied. It's proximity also makes it possible (but highly unlikely) to be part of Tampines GRC too.

It does not have any MRT stations yet (though this would change with the upcoming downtown line), Bus interchanges or even major shopping centres, which in my opinion, making it a poor candidate for an SMC.

After some consideration, which was mainly influenced by the fact that a large number of buses servicing this area feeds into Tampines or Bedok, and the geographical proximity to Bedok instead of Tampines, I eventually landed with including Kaki Bukit with this GRC.

So now we have Bedok Constituency (which i want to rename Bedok South), Fengshan, Kampong-Chai Chee (Maybe shortened to just Chai Chee), Kaki Bukit (or Bedok North), Siglap and Eunos (which I want to rename Bedok Reservoir), which makes for a 6 Member GRC. The change of the GRC name is a nod to the main MRT station and Bus Interchange being Bedok. The boundaries for this GRC would be Sungei Bedok to the east, the perimeter of Paya Lebar Airbase to the north, Eunos Link, PIE, Lengkong Tiga, New Upper Changi Road and Bedok South Ave 1 to the west.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Unlikely. Firstly, the bulk of East Coast GRC voting bloc is relatively unchanged, with the removal of Changi-Simei constituency and a small part of Siglap. and the re addition of Kaki Bukit. However, there would be a large protestation from the opposition, as it severely changes opposition territories; constituencies that are currently held by WP (Kaki Bukit) and areas that nearly fell to opposition control (East Coast). Additionally, my intuition is that this configuration favours the opposition, and it's formation would result in a possible second GRC going to the opposition.

Joo Chiat SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Joo Chiat is another existing SMC that makes sense. However, i would slightly trim off the small portion north of New upper Changi Road, and give that part to Kembangan-Chai Chee constituency

The boundaries for this GRC would be the Changi Road to the north, Still Road to the west, Marine Parade Road and Siglap Canal to the south, and Bedok South Ave 1 to the East

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

50/50 chance. This is currently an SMC, but it was the 2nd worst performer in the last election, with PAP only getting 51% of the votes. There is a strong possibility of it being absorbed into the relatively strong Marine Parade GRC to keep it out of the opposition's reach.

Marine Parade GRC

4 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Marine Parade is another sprawling mess of a GRC, combining areas that should not belong together. Logically, I would consider anything north of the PIE as a completely separate location from anything south of the PIE. This division would leave us with Marine Parade Constituency, Kembangan-Chai Chee and a small part of Geylang Serai. To this, I would like to add the Kolam Ayer constituency from the Moulmein-Kallang GRC.

The boundaries for this GRC would be the PIE to the north, Kallang River to the west, Nicoll Highway/ Guillemard Road to the south, a short section of the Geylang river and Dunman Road, and Tanjong Katong Road. To the east, the boundaries is Lengkong Tiga, Changi Road, Still Road and Marine Parade Road, and the Siglap Canal.

The Kolam Ayer, Kembangan-Chai Chee and the Marine Parade constituency should be relatively unchanged, with the exception of renaming Kolam Ayam to Geylang. Geylang Serai would absorb parts of the other 3 consitiuencies, and be maybe renamed Paya Lebar

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Unlikely, due to the extreme changes proposed. A possible alternative version of this GRC would include Joo Chiat SMC or Mountbatten SMC or even both to make a 5 or 6 member GRC. 

Macpherson SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Macpherson is an interesting constituency. because of the PIE and its geographical location, it does not fit in to Marine Parade GRC, of which it is currently a part of. it is also too geographically removed to be a part of East Coast GRC, or the current Aljunied GRC. 

There are also 2 big problems for me to consider making it into an SMC. Firstly, this area is pretty large, and it comprises of 3 (or 4) distinctly different areas; the HDB estate at Macpherson, the 2 industrial area at Tai Seng/ Ubi, and the private housing north of the Pelton Canal. The second problem is the lack of amenities and a central hub for transportation.

What eventually swayed me was that Macpherson MRT would be an interchange when the Downtown line is complete. This might be an indicator that a shopping malls and more amenities might be built here in the near future.

The boundaries for this SMC would be the Serangoon Road and Upper Aljunied Road/Aljunied Road to the west, PIE to the south, Eunos Link/ Airport road to the east and Bartley Road/Bartley Road East to the north

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

Unlikely. The MP currently representing Macpherson is Tin Pei Ling, a new first term MP who was received very badly online when her candidacy was announced in 2011. Making this a SMC would require her to run on her own, which has a good possibility of falling to the opposition, especially with it being sandwiched by Potong Pasir and Aljunied, both opposition strongholds. NSP would most likely contest here as they had previously contested Marine Parade GRC.

Mountbatten SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Like Joo Chiat, Mountbatten is another existing SMC that makes sense. So I shall not make any major changes, except slightly reduce the area to make Tanjong Katong road a better boundary line.

The boundaries for this SMC would be the Kallang River to the east, Nicoll Highway/ Guillmard Road to the north, the short section of the Geylang River, Dunman Road and Tanjong Katong Road.

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

Very good chance. This is currently an SMC, that 58.6% voted for PAP, just slightly below the national average. Jeanette Chong- Aldross from NSP contested here in 2011, and would most likely re-contest here again.

Constituencies in Central Singapore

IF I were the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee

When you look at the GRCs in Central Singapore, almost all of them are sprawling, and group together locations that could be better off apart; like Buona Vista and Tanjong Pagar in Tanjong Pagar GRC, Moulmein and Kallang in Moulmein - Kallang, and parts of Seng Kang and Upper Thompson in Ang Mo Kio GRC.

Moulmein - Kallang seems to be unnecessarily unwieldy, sprawling over 4 highways (PIE, CTE, ECP and KPE), and requiring a 16 min drive on the PIE to get from Aljunied Road (at one end) to Eng Neo Avenue (on the other end).

The 2 SMCs (Radin Mas and Whampoa) also have a strange feature of putting together 2 areas separated by an expressway (CTE running through Whampoa, and AYE separating the 2 halves in Radin Mas).

Telok Blangah SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

I have a bachelor friend that lives at Telok Blangah way. One year, for Chinese New Year, we decided to celebrate CNY with a steamboat at his house. Upon reaching his place, we realized that as a bachelor living alone, his kitchen was bereft of common kitchen utensils, including vegetable peeler/ shredder needed to prepare yu sheng. So I hopped into another friend's car, and we drove down the street trying to find a market or a neighbourhood shop where we can purchase one. We eventually found one at a market 5 mins away, at Telok Blangah Drive. To me, this is the essence of what makes a good constituency; easy to travel within it, and sharing amenities that the surrounding area uses.

Looking at the current electoral boundaries, I found it incredible strange that the Telok Blangah Drive/ Heights area is a different constituency from Telok Blangah Way/ Rise area, and even more that the latter is in the same SMC as the Bukit Merah estate across the AYE. Even transportation wise, the Bukit Merah estate might find it better to be serviced by the Redhill and Tiong Bahru MRT stations, while the Telok Blangah Way/ Rise area use Harbourfront MRT and Bus Interchange.

I then decided to create a very straightforward SMC: Telok Blangah, bounded by the AYE/ Keppel Viaduct to the north, and Alexandra Road to the west. The main transportation and retail centre would be the Harbourfront area, which includes the MRT station, Bus Interchange, Harbourfront and Vivocity shopping centre, among others.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Possible. No strong reason against the formation of this SMC. The PAP can continue to field Sam Tan, who is the incumbent in Radin Mas SMC, and expect to win by a large margin. Since the NSP contested Radin Mas in 2011, it is possible that they will do so here.

Pasir Panjang SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Comprising of part of Telok Blangah Consitiuency in the east, and West Coast in the West, Pasir Panjang can possibly be an new SMC. Although Pasir Panjang does not have much infrastructure to work with currently, there is potential for development along Pasir Panjang road, especially between Pasir Panjang and Labrador MRT, where such development would also benefit the commercial buildings like the massive Mapletree Business City.

The northern and eastern boundaries would be the AYE and Alexandra Road respectively. the western boundary would be an imaginary running from South Buona Vista road to the sea. excluding Haw Par Villa and Haw Par Villa MRT from this SMC, and including the residential areas around Pasir Panjang Road/ Pasir Panjang Hill/ Zehnder Road

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

50/50 Chance. If the West Coast GRC breaks up, there is no reason why this SMC would not form. The PAP candidate here could be S Iswaran, the previous MP for Telok Blangah. Additionally as a minister in the PMO, as well as being the 2nd minister for both Home Affairs and Trade and Industry, He would very likely be elected over a possible RP opponent.

Downtown GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

One of the sacred cows in Singapore's Politics is to revere all things Lee Kwan Yew. This includes the Tanjong Pagar GRC, which the late Mr Lee had represented since 1955. Hence, the breakup of this GRC is slaying one of the Sacred Cowss, which the EBRC is highly unlikely to do. Thankfully, this is a mental exercise, and as an anonymous voice on the internet, I can kill as many cows as I can (as long as there is good reason for it).

The old Tanjong Pagar GRC, as well as the old Moulmein - Kallang GRC were too large and unwieldy. However, when I chose to ignore pre-existing boundaries for a moment, and just focus at the area at hand, I saw the potential to create a cohesive and relative compact GRC.

Bounded by the Kallang river to the east, the CTE to the north-west, and the keppel viaduct to the south, I created a GRC, with the various historical districts at its core. (Note: the the small estate around York Hill, Jalan Minyak and Jalan Kukoh is included in the GRC despite being west of the CTE, and the small area bounded by Jalan Bukit Merah, Kampung Bahru Road, AYE and CTE are considered not part of this GRC)

The 5 constituencies I created are Kampong Glam (previously from Moulmein - Kallang), Chinatown (taking over most of the previous Kreta Ayer - Kim Seng Constituency), Little India (stretching from Fort Canning to Farrer Park), Tanjong Pagar (previously from Tanjong Pagar GRC) and Boon Keng (all areas north of Balestier Road/ Lavender Street).

Despite having no specific centre/hub, this area has a common identity of being part of the  the various historical districts, and have the second role as the central commercial area of Singapore (previously known as the CBD). Additionally, if I'm not wrong, these areas comprise of much older estates. Hence MPs here have the common goal of upgrading old estates and preserving historical elements of Singapore, among their many duties.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Highly unlikely. The EBRC is unlikely to breakup Tanjong Pagar GRC. If this GRC appears though, it is unlikely to contain the Tanjong Pagar  constituency. We can possibly see the PAP team led by Yaacob Ibrahim going up against the WP, who had a strong showing in 2011 with 41.44% of the votes in Moulmein - Kallang GRC. However this is contingent on the absence of three-cornered fights, which almost happened in 2011 when the NSP also expressed interest in contesting Moulmein - Kallang.

Commonwealth - Tiong Bahru GRC

3- Member Group Constituency (GRC)

With Tanjong Pagar and most of Kreta Ayer- Kim Seng going to the Downtown GRC, Tanglin - Cairnhill to Dunearn - Bukit Timah GRC, and Part of Buona Vista to Clementi GRC, the remaining area can be rearranged into 3 constituencies; Commonwealth, Queenstown and Tiong Bahru; each named for the MRT station that service each area. Although this remaining area is originally made up of 1 3/4 original constituencies, I believe that the bulk of voters in the previous Tanjong Pagar GRC came from this area, and unless proven through more accurate numbers (that the real EBRC would have access to), I believe that this area would contain more than 60,000 voters, enough to justify a 3-member GRC.

Despite not having a central hub to service as a transportation hub or a commercial centre, this GRC's relative small size coupled with the MRT line running through this GRC, makes it a slightly better GRC configuration, than most of the current GRCs we gained in 2011

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very unlikely. The formation of this GRC is dependant on too many unlikely factors: the re-introduction of 3-membered GRCs, the breakup of Tanjong Pagar GRC and the creation of a HDB estate-focused GRC without an affluent constituency (like Tanglin - Cairnhill) added to it. With a walkover here in the past 5 election, It is difficult to assess which way the voters here will lean, an additional reason why the PAP will not favor such a GRC. On the other hand, there is very little opposition presence in this area.

Balestier SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Similar to Radin Mas SMC, Whampoa has a strange characteristic of grouping 2 estates divided by a highway. To make it easier to manage, I decided to remove the portion south of the CTE, and instead add the area east of Thompson Road.

This new SMC would have the clear boundaries of the PIE, the CTE and Thompson Road. With this new configuration, I felt it was better to rename it Balestier SMC, to better reflect Balestier Road running through this SMC.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Possible. Although the incumbent MP, Heng Chee How, should be able to win here with a comfortable margin. His opponent sould be NSP's Ken Sun, who had contested in Whampoa twice; once in 2011 and in 1988.

Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Among all the GRCs in the 2011 Election, I felt that only 2 of them made any sense. Bishan - Toa Payoh was one of them, being relatively compact with obvious boundaries, and having a primary in Bishan Central (A train and bus interchange, with a major Shopping mall, Junction 8) and other facilities, and secondary centre in Toa Payoh Central (with an MRT station and a retail/service hub)

Although this is made of clearly 2 self-contained areas (Bishan and Toa Payoh), both of them enjoy geographical proximity: it is very easy to travel from one hub to another via MRT, and both of them are separated by a single road (Bradell road). By comparison Pasir Ris and Punggol, although being in the same GRC, are geographically far (5km apart), and require at least a 6 minute drive on the TPE to get from the 2 nearest points. Furthermore, as one would have to rely on buses, it is not as easy to travel from Pasir Ris to Punggol.

With the execption of 2 minor additions, the boundaries of this GRC is relatively unchanged. The 2 additions include the Mount Pleasant area (bounded by Lornie Road, PIE and Thompson Road), and the small sliver of land west of the CTE, that previously belonged to Potong Pasir SMC.

The updated  Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC as a whole still have clear boundaries; Bishan Park/ Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 to the north, the CTE to the East, the PIE to the south and Lornie Road/Upper Thompson Road to the west (although this GRC includes the Thomson area west/below Upper Thompson Road).

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very likely. As a GRC in the 2011 GE, there is no reason why we will not see it this election. The PAP should see a victory here, even though their result here in 2011 is slightly lower than PAP's national average. The current team is led by Dr Ng Eng Hen. In the previous election, we saw the SPP, led by ex-MP Chiam See Tong contest here. However, due to Chiam See Tong's current frail condition, and the absence of any other strong candidates in the SPP after Benjamin Pwee's departure, leave the prospect of the SPP contesting this GRC in the upcoming GE rather uncertain.

Ang Mo Kio GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Looking at this area of Singapore, I can easily see clear boundaries for this GRC; SLE to the north, CTE to the east, Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 to the south, and Upper Thompson Road to the west. 

Previously I felt that Ang Mo Kio unnecessarily included parts of Seng Kang, Hougang and Serangoon in the form of the Jalan Kayu constituency and parts of  and the Cheng San - Seletar Constituency. With these new boundaries, the Jalan Kayu constituency is taken out, as well as the Seletar portion of the Cheng San - Seletar Constituency, leaving us with a Cheng San ward. 

This leaves us with a more compact (and manageable) GRC with Ang Mo Kio MRT, Bus Interchange and AMK Hub at the centre.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very very unikely. The PAP will be unhappy with the configuration of this GRC for 2 main reasons; firstly, it is said that the PAP use the larger GRCs to protect key people. (The larger the GRC, the harder it is for the opposition to assemble a team with that many strong candidates to contest that GRC). Since the current Prime Minister is fielded here, any configuration other than a 6 - member GRC is unfavorable. Secondly, Lee Hsein Loong is a strong candidate, and is able to pull in votes from undecided and the neutral voters, and even winning over some opposition supporters. Hence the PAP would want to see the GRC he is in to take districts or even constituencies from the opposition-leaning areas of Hougang, Seng Kang and Serangoon. So to create such a GRC, would be to slaughter a sacred cow that the EBRC is sure not to touch.

In this configuration, the PAP team should be led by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and is expected to win an overwhelming victory here. This GRC was contested by the Reform Party in 2011.