Constituencies in Western Singapore

IF I were the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee

What I dislike about the current electoral boundaries can be easily summarized into 2 points: Most of the GRCs/SMCs either breakup areas that should be grouped together (logically and intuitively), or group together areas that should not be together. And the constituencies in the Westen part of Singapore shows us GRCs/SMCs that are guilty of one or the other, and for some, guilty of both simultaneously.

Hong Kah North attempts to group together 2 estates, one in Bukit Batok, and one at Jalan Boon Lay. To travel from one to the other, one would need to drive 16 minutes on the PIE, or take 50 minutes by bus. Similarly, the Nanyang Constituency in Choa Chu Kang Constituency would feel woefully separate from the rest of the GRC (16 min drive in the KJE/PIE, and 40 mins by bus/train is needed to travel from Choa Chu Kang MRT to Nanyang Community Centre).

Among all the GRCs in Singapore, I feel that West Coast GRC is one of the worst conceived, and I feel for the ministers (and the Town Council) in this GRC, because it seems like it simply lumped all the remaining constituencies in this area into one GRC. It takes more than a 20 min drive on the AYE, and up to 70 minutes on public transport to travel from Telok Blangah to Boon Lay. I believe that all members of a GRCs should have the same identity, experience similar living conditions due to the shared use of the same infrastructure like transportation, recreational and commercial spaces. Other than West Coast and Clementi, I believe that none of the constituencies have any common identity, common infrastructure and facilities. It is entirely possible that a resident of Boon Lay has never set foot in Ayer Rajah, West Coast and vice versa.

As for dividing up places that should logically and intuitively be grouped together, Jurong and Yuhua is a good example of this. Yuhua seems to be haphazardly carved out from the middle of Jurong GRC. This can also be seen in Pioneer SMC and West Coast GRC, as well as in Bukit Panjang SMC and Holland - Bukit Timah GRC. I understand that these pairs of SMC and GRC currently have a shared Town council, share many facilities and organize joint grassroots activities. If that is so, why have them separate to begin with. Furthermore these boundaries assume the same political party winning  both members of the pair (which might be the political reason for such boundaries if gerrymandering rumors are to be believed). Because if different parties won either of them, it would simply be logistically and operationally (and unnecessarily) difficult to manage each constituents.

The (residential) area to the west of Corporation Road annoys me greatly. It is not a very large area, yet the previous EBRC managed to carve it into 4 different portions; Pioneer SMC, Part of Hong Kah North SMC, Nanyang constituency from Choa Chu Kang GRC and Boon Lay from West Coast GRC. Why can't they just make this into one GRC?

Likewise, I suffer the same annoyance when I look at the area around the Bukit Panjang LRT. A logical person would group this area together, and not divide it up into 3 parts (Choa Chu Kang GRC, Holland- Bukit Timah GRC and Bukit Panjang GRC). Instead, the constituencies around the LRT (Cashew and Zhenghua) is grouped with constituencies like Bukit Timah, which are a distance away.

Boon Lay GRC

3 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

As mentioned above, it seem completely irrational not to group all the residential areas to the west of Corporation Road together in one GRC. While not containing residential areas, due to geographical proximity and current roads, it would be logical to add the Joo Koon/Tuas industrial area, and the Lim Chu Kang forested area to this GRC. Hence the boundaries for this GRC would be Kranji Reservoir, KJE, PIE, Jurong West Ave 2, Corporation Road, Jurong Port road, Jalan Buroh and Jurong River.  

I feel that this is a much better grouping than West Coast GRC by far. Almost all the residents here would need to pass through Boon Lay MRT or Boon Lay Bus Interchange, and Jurong Point serves as the primary shopping centre/area for this region.

Since Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong mentioned that his instructions to the EBRC is to have smaller GRC, I am interpreting this as the possible revival of the 3-member GRCs. Since this GRC would now comprise of 3 1/3 of previous wards (Boon Lay from West Coast, Nanyang from Choa Chu Kang, Pioneer SMC, and 1/3 of Hong Kah North), I think it would be better to position this as a 3 member GRC. 

Although I would keep the original constituency names: Boon Lay, Pioneer and Nanyang, I would like to rearrange the individual constituencies' boundaries:

- Boon Lay: All the residential areas east of Jalan Bahar/Jalan Boon Lay

- Pioneer: All residential areas west of Jalan Boon Lay, and south of Jurong West 4

- Nanyang: All residential areas west of Jalan Bahar and north of Jurong West Ave 4

How Likely will we see the formation of this SMC in GE 2015/2016

50/50 Chance. It is strange that this area is butchered to this extent. The PAP poll very well in this area. (All four areas poll higher than PAP national average, with Choa Chu Kang polling 5% higher than the national average, and Hong Kah North a whopping 10% higher than the national average.) The PAP team here can be led by Lawrence Wong, and their likely opponents would be the NSP, most likely led by previous NCMP Steve Chia.

Jurong GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Generally speaking, I believe that Expressways and waterways should be natural boundaries. So when it came to looking at Jurong as a GRC, it was very easy to identify the PIE as the northern border, and Sungei Pandan as the eastern boundary. However, when it came to the Ayer Rajah Constituency, I felt that I should make an exception to this rule.

Ayer Rajah is a tiny constituency, comprising of 50+ blocks divided in 2 estates. Although they are separated from Jurong by the AYE, Jurong remains its nearest transportation hub  and shopping area (A 4 min drive via Jurong Town hall road).

As I mentioned above, I would include Yuhua as part of the Jurong GRC. Bukit Batok  on the other hand, seems rather out of place. They are geographically separate (divided by the PIE), and have their own transportation hub and commercial centre. Hence I removed  Bukit Batok and Bukit Batok east from Jurong, ending with a 5 ward GRC.

The boundaries for Jurong GRC thus would be the PIE to the north, Sungei Pandan to the east, and Jurong West Ave 2 and Corporation Road to the west

Ayer Rajah can remain as a constituency, but I feel inclined to re arrange the rest of Jurong, and to rename them based on the MRT station that service them. The new constituencies would be Jurong East (All areas east of Jurong Town Hall road), Chinese Gardens (Areas between Jurong Town Hall road and Jurong River), Lakeside (Previously Taman Jurong) and Jurong West (Areas North  of Boon Lay way and west of Jurong River)

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very Likely. With my re-arrangement, we now see 2 possible team leader in Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Grace Fu. It is possible that one of them would be parachuted into a newly created SMC, or to lead a team in a newly formed GRC. The PAP, should continue to to win here, winning more than 66% of the votes last election. Their opponents should be the NSP, although the SDP contested Yuhua previously.

Bukit Batok SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

As mentioned before, Bukit Batok has a transportation hub, a central shopping centre (West Mall) and various amenities like a polyclinic, a community hospital, a library and various parks. This makes it a good candidate to be an SMC.

The boundaries for Bukit Batok is KJE, Brickland Road and Bukit Batok Road to the north-west, PIE to the south, Bukit Batok East Ave 2 and Bukit Batok Street 25 to the east, and Bukit Batok Central, Bukit Batok East Ave 2 and Bukit Batok Street 52/  Bukit Batok  East Ave 5 to the north. 

When determining the between Bukit Batok and Bukit Gombak, Hillgrove Gardens estate at Bukit Batok East Ave 2/ Bukit Batok Street 52  came up for discussion. Ultimately, I felt that they would identify more with being in Bukit Batok due to proximity and ease of public transportation to the MRT.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Likely. If the EBRC intend to carve out new SMCS, this should be one of its top candidates. Furthermore, with Halimah Bte Yacob, the current speaker of Parliment, and the incumbent, the PAP should have no difficulty in maintaining its high polling numbers here. We would potentially see NSP or SDP contesting here. The NSP previously contested Jurong GRC in 2011, of which Bukit Batok was previously a part of.

Bukit Gombak SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Unlike Bukit Batok to the south, Bukit Gombak is a very weak candidate for being an SMC. Although it has an MRT station, it does not have a bus interchange, a central shopping centre/area, and amenities like libraries or medical facilities.

I had 2 options with Bukit Gombak: make it a constituent under Choa Chu Kang GRC, or believe in its potential to grow into a self-sustaining SMC. I chose to go with the latter, although I acknowledge that if this happens, the MP would have an uphill task in developing this area.

The original Bukit Gombak constituency is made up of 2 areas: the area south of the MRT station, and the residential area around Hillview avenue. Additionally, the bulk of Hong Kah North SMC is just above the Bukit Gombak MRT. For this SMC, I decided to combine both areas north and south of the MRT, and choose to give the Hillview area to Choa Chu Kang GRC.

The Boundaries for this SMC is Bukit Batok Road to the north, Bukit Batok West Ave 2 to the west, Bukit Batok Central and Bukit Batok Street 52 to the south, and an imaginary line through the forested area, from Bukit Batok East Avenue 5 to Bukit Batok Road

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very unlikely. However, if this SMC do surface, we should expect to see the very popular Amy Khor to run here, and either maintain or increase the 70.6% of votes last election. As for opposition parties, we could see the SPP or the NSP running here. 

Yew Tee SMC

Single Member Constituency (SMC)

Together with Sembawang and Simei, Yew Tee is an ideal candidate for being an SMC; Clear Boundaries (Kranji Reservoir to the west, KJE to the south and the rail corridor/Canal to the east), A transport hub (Yew Tee MRT), a central shopping area (Yew Tee Square, Yew Tee Shopping centre, Market, etc...) and amenities like a polyclinic, a sports complex/stadium and various parks.

Although it does not have a bus interchange, buses can be taken at the bus stop just next to the MRT station the ply the whole area.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Possible. Although the incumbent MP for Yew Tee is a PAP Backbencher, Alex Yam is the executive director for the PAP HQ, and is an advisor to NTUC. He may be a one of the very few backbencher running in a SMC. Although the NSP previously contested Choa Chu Kang in 2011, of which Yew Tee was a part of, it is most likely that Yew Tee will also be of strong interest to the SDP, who have shown strong activity in this area. The PAP should have no problems in retaining this area though.

Choa Chu Kang GRC

5 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

When you look at the areas serviced by the Bukit Panjang LRT, namely the Choa Chu Kang, Keat Hong, Cashew, Zhenghua and Pasir Panjang Constituencies, it is obvious that they should be in the same GRC. All 5 are serviced by the same transportation infrastructure, with the hub being Choa Chu Kang MRT and bus interchange. 

Because it is servicing the hub, most of these residents would also use Lot 1, although each constituentcy have their own shopping centres like Junction 10, Hillion Mall, Bukit Panjang Plaza and Fajar Shopping Centre/Market. Furthermore, since all these shopping centres are along the LRT line, it is also very easy for any residents to visit any of these malls.

Although this new GRC will service 5 1/2 constituencies (including the Hillview area from Bukit Gombak), and Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang was previously the largest SMC and GRC with an estimated 33,035 and 158,552 voters respectively, I feel very reluctant to make it a 6-membered GRC. As per the PM's request, I want to make GRC stay as small as far as possible. If I were the real Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, I would base my decision on the number of registered voters in this area. If there are more than 165,000 voters (The smallest 6-membered GRC in 2011 had an estimated 168,834 voters), I would make it a 6-membered GRC. Till then, it would remain as a 5-membered GRC

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very Unlikely. With the exception of Bukit Panjang, the PAP's track record in this area is around the national average (60.1% in Holland Bukit Timah, and 61.2% in Choa Chu Kang). It is unlikely that the PAP would want to rock the boat by making any drastic changes in this area. Furthermore, the SDP has been contesting Bukit Panjang since 1988 (even though their poll results never see them poll higher than 35%), removing this SMC might results in claims of gerrymandering. The SDP tend to be one of the most vocal opposition parties in Singapore.

In the very unlikely situation of Choa Chu Kang GRC having this new configuration, we can see a PAP team led by Health Minister Gan Kim Yong. The NSP and the SDP would want to contest this GRC. The NSP team could be led by Secretary General Hazel Poa, with her Husband Tony, or by the President Sebastian Teo, all three having contested previously in Choa Chu Kang GRC in 2011. 

Dunearn - Bukit Timah GRC

4 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

Just below the Central Catchment area, I had 4 constituencies: Half of Bukit Batok East from Jurong GRC, Half of Ulu Pandan and Bukit Timah, previously from the Holland- Bukit Timah GRC, Tanglin- Cairnhill from Tanjong Pagar GRC, and Moulmein from the Moulmein - Kallang GRC.

It seemed easy to lump them together and form a GRC, but I was very reluctant to do so. I did not want to create another West Coast GRC, lumping 4 constituencies next together together, without any common identity or common infrastructure used.

Upon further consideration, I decided that there are 3 uniting factors: Firstly, all these areas are serviced by the parallel Bukit Timah Road/ Dunearn Road which runs the entire length of all 4 constituencies, secondly, they will be serviced by the soon-to-be-ready Downtown Line, with stations situated along Bukit Timah Road/ Dunearn Road. Thirdly (but controversially), the vast majority of residents all all these area live in landed properties or in private apartments, making them all similar in social class and income range. Being in the higher income bracket is also a consideration I took in downplaying the size (length) of this GRC as residents here are likely to own their own transportation and are less dependent on public transportation.

Some people might find my last point elitist, and unnecessarily segregating of Singaporeans. In my opinion, sometimes grouping people of the same income bracket/ social class together might be better as it means that these people would have similar problems/ concerns, and they can seek an MP that more accurately attend to their needs.

Adding the Central Catchment area to this GRC, we see a four - member GRC formed with the previous Bukit Timah and Tanglin- Cairnhill constituencies intact. Moulmein Constituency is reduced with the area north of the PIE given to Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC, The area east of the CTE given to a GRC I have newly created, and all area above /east of Thompson road to Whampoa SMC. Parts of Bukit Batok east and Ulu Pandan, namely the area north of the PIE, west of the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve, South of Bukit Batok nature park, and west of Bukit Batok St 25/ Bukit Batok Ave 3.

Since this GRC contain 2 greatly reduced constituencies, I considered making this a 3-member GRC, instead of a 4-member GRC. However, taking into consideration the relative size of the constituencies, I decided to temporarily leave it at 4 members. However, If I were the real Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, I would change this to a 3 -member GRC if there are less than 75,000 voters here. (4-member GRC Moulmein - Kallang had an estimated 87,498 voters in 2011. The average SMC has 25,000 voters)

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

Very unikely. It is commonly said that the higher income bracket tend to be pro-PAP. It is unlikely that the PAP will be happy with a GRC comprising mostly of these voters, when they could be distributed to other adjacent GRCs/ SMCs to increase the percentage of PAP votes in those areas.

If such a GRC should surface, we would see a PAP team possibly led by Vivian Balakrishnan (Minister of the Environment and Water Resources), or by Lui Tuck Yew (Minister for Transport and 2nd Minister for Defence). There are no clear forerunners among the opposition parties in these areas, although SDP contested Holland Bukit Timah in 2011, and WP contested Moulmein- Kallang. I would expect to see an overwhelming victory here for the PAP.

Clementi GRC

4 - Member Group Constituency (GRC)

As a former NUS student that stayed on campus for 4 years, I experience how Clementi serves as the central transportation hub for its surrounding areas, specifically the West Coast, Sunset way area, and the Dover area. 

In addition to the MRT station and bus interchange, Clementi Central also boast several shopping centres, a polyclinic, a library, a wet market, several coffee shops/ shops and a sports complex/ swimming complex. For residents of Buona Vista and Ghim moh, Clementi would be the most convenient place for shopping and accessing its other facilities.

While all four constituencies would (more or less) remain the same, I would change the name of Ulu - Pandan to Sunset - Ghim Moh, To better reflect the 2 area it comprise of. Clementi, West Coast and Buona Vista will continue to retain their names.

The boundaries for this Clementi GRC would be Pandan River to the west, clementi Avenue 6, PIE, Clementi Road, Ulu Pandan Road/ Holland Road to the north, and North Buona Vista Road/ South Buona Vista Road to the east, as well as an imaginary running from South Buona Vista road to the sea. keeping Haw Par Villa and Haw Par Villa MRT within the GRC, but not including the residential areas arounf Pasir Panjang Road/ Pasir Panjang Hill/ Zehnder Road.

How Likely will we see the formation of this GRC in GE 2015/2016

50/50. The possibility of this GRC forming is contingent wholly on whether the West Coast GRC will be dissolved. The PAP team could be led by Minister in PMO (and Secretary General of NTUC) Chan Chun Sing. The Reform party can be expected to run here, led by their Secretary-General Kenneth Jeyaretnam. The PAP should be expected to win comfortably.